In last year’s Olympic Games in London, I happened to catch the gold-medal round of the shortest sprint race in velodrome bicycle racing. The race is comprised of three circuits around the steeply banked 250-meter track, but only over the last two laps are the competitors racing in any recognizable sense of the word. Over … Continue reading The Slow Motion Bike Race
Read MoreI was part of a panel discussion on Nov. 28th at the Total Energy USA Conference in Houston. The idea behind the conference was to pull together people working in all different parts of the energy industry: oil & gas, wind, coal, nuclear, solar, hydro – a real “all of the above” conference. Unfortunately, the … Continue reading Total Energy Consumed
Read MoreI’d like to expand a bit on my last entry, which talked about some of the ideas I put forward in my presentation at the Decision Analysis Affinity Group (DAAG) Conference entitled, “Everything We Know Is Wrong.” Last time, I talked about the need for new metrics and wisdom when setting a course for the … Continue reading Everything We Know is Wrong – Part II
Read MoreBack in April, I gave a talk at the Decision Analysis Affinity Group (DAAG) Conference entitled, “Everything We Know Is Wrong.” One of the great things about DAAG is you can throw fairly provocative ideas out for everyone’s consideration without them thinking you’re crazy (well, maybe just a little crazy). I received a lot of good questions, feedback, and push-back, which was exactly what I wanted.
Read MoreI just gave my SPE Distinguished Lecturer presentation for the chapter here in Hanover, Germany. As I mentioned in a previous posting, the brunt of the talk is that companies should be risk neutral when considering the economic metrics of individual projects, and should strive to apply their risk tolerance at the portfolio level. This … Continue reading A Need for Bipolar Managers?
Read MoreThe onset of winter in Alaska is inevitable; there is no such inevitability when it comes to our past experiences adequately preparing us for an uncertain future. I’ve just wrapped up my first tour as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer. I gave talks in Grand Junction CO, Denver, Minot ND, Anchorage AK, Fairbanks AK, and San … Continue reading Unintended Consequences
Read MoreI just finished my SPE Distinguished Lecturer presentation here in Denver. Great crowd – even though my talk doesn’t really focus on unconventional plays (which most of the people in this crowd are working on), they were obviously interested. They asked really good questions and came up afterward to talk about various issues. The organizers … Continue reading At Least It Isn’t Snowing
Read MoreI’m getting ready to give my SPE Distinguished Lecturer talk tonight here in Minot, ND, where the people are friendly and the wind blows free. Note the pickup-truck-to-car ratio in the photo. I was met at the airport and taken to lunch by Lisa Hokanson and her friend, Beverly. Had a great lunch and terrific … Continue reading Where the People are Friendly and the Wind Blows Free
Read MoreNo, that’s not the Grand Canyon; it’s the view from near my hotel in Grand Junction. The crowd for my SPE Distinguished Lecturer talk last night was small, but they were engaged and asked good questions. The country here is amazing, especially if you have a geo background. Flying up from Houston, you can almost … Continue reading No, that’s not the Grand Canyon
Read MoreOver the weekend, I attended an excellent production of Arthur Miller’s classic play, Death of a Salesman. It was all the more impressive for the fact that the actor who was to play the lead character, Willy Loman, took ill two weeks ago, and the new actor had only that much time to get up … Continue reading Death of a Skill Set
Read MoreNext week, I’ll be embarking on my first tour as part of the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ Distinguished Lecturer program. I’ll be doing six tours over a period of six months, each of which involves presenting at between three and five different locations – twenty-four stops in all. Three of the tours are in North … Continue reading Risk Tolerance and Risk Neutrality (You Can Live With More Risk Than You Think)
Read MoreIn a previous blog, I mentioned Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking Fast and Slow. It’s an excellent, in-depth look at how human beings think and make decisions, based on decades of research (much of which was conducted by Kahneman himself with various colleagues). I find this stuff fascinating; in fact, I regularly give a lunch-n-learn talk … Continue reading Brain vs. Gut: Making Smart Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty
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